Last year was an extremely turbulent one for bitcoin (BTC). We saw an 84 percent fall in BTC’s price, from the all-time high of nearly $20,000 to a low of $3,200. Of course, we expect fluctuations in the crypto market, with prices often rising or falling up to 30 percent in a day. That’s why bitcoin price predictions tend to focus more on the long term.
The struggles of 2018
Bitcoin has always been volatile. Since it arrived on the scene in 2009, the cryptocurrency’s price has risen and fallen many times. BTC’s value plummeted in 2018, with some particularly bad losses in the last few weeks of the year. However, with demand set to increase, many experts believe that BTC is long overdue for another bull run. This could happen soon, or we might have to wait for the block reward halving in 2020.
Bitcoin’s hash rate also dropped by 30 percent in the last quarter of 2018. However, this isn’t all bad news. Indeed, the decreasing difficulty has raised hopes that miners might once again dedicate their computing power to the Bitcoin network. Other projects scheduled for 2019, including Bakkt and Bitcoin futures on NASDAQ, could also attract investment.
What might the future bring?
Predicting BTC’s future price is very difficult, no matter how much you know. Indeed, even the most experienced traders often make mistakes, especially in the short term. For example, just before Christmas, BTC rallied back to $4,200. Many traders thought the long-awaited bull run had arrived. However, just days later the Grinch ran away with all those gains.
In the longer term, supply will have a much bigger influence on BTC’s price. Soon enough, in 2020, we can expect the halving of Bitcoin’s block reward to push BTC’s value up.
Bitcoin price predictions: looking into the crystal ball
So, we’ve examined the factors involved in estimating BTC’s future price. Now it’s time to see what some of the experts say. We’ll warn you in advance that some of these bitcoin price predictions might seem insane in hindsight.
If you have anything to do with Bitcoin, or if you’ve ever had McAfee anti-virus software installed on your computer, you will have heard of this eccentric businessman. John McAfee is a computer programmer who made millions from his eponymous anti-virus program. He is also a leading proponent of blockchain tech and Bitcoin over the past few years.
Why is McAfee on this list? Because on November 29, 2017, he made one of the most outlandish bitcoin price predictions of all time. McAfee made the bold claim that BTC would reach $1 million by 2020. On current evidence, he might be starting to get nervous.
Someone has even made a website that tracks the accuracy of McAfee’s statement. Let’s hope, for his sake, that BTC’s price rises exponentially in 2019.
The Winklevoss twins
You might remember the Winklevoss twins as Mark Zuckerberg’s rivals in The Social Network. Well, these brothers have since become successful businessmen and now own a U.S. crypto exchange called Gemini. In fact, they recently released their own stablecoin: Gemini dollar (GUSD). Their cumulative wealth, even during the bear trend, stands at $1 billion, making them two of the most successful crypto entrepreneurs ever.
Tyler Winklevoss makes this list because of his prediction in February 2018 that bitcoin would reach a price of $320k. If we want to be picky, we could say Winklevoss was one third as ambitious as McAfee. His prediction also differs slightly in that he never specified an end date for this price.
Been saving this 23 year old bourbon for when we made Bitcoin great again. It's time. pic.twitter.com/dIiZWbmd5e
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) July 21, 2017
Jameson Lopp is an infrastructure engineer for Casa and creator of bitcoinsig.com, as well as a renowned bitcoin investor. He is a famous HODLer who has always remained enthusiastic about bitcoin, no matter how bad things look. Thus, his bitcoin price prediction of $250k by 2020 comes as no surprise.
Although he takes a slightly more conservative approach than McAfee and the Winklevoss twins, his figure still seems quite optimistic.
As an American venture capital investor, Tim Draper’s influence on the crypto market is vast. He has founded Draper Fisher Jurvetson (DFJ), Draper Associates, and even Draper University. His most famous moment was a bitcoin auction in which he purchased nearly 30,000 BTC in 2014.
He correctly predicted that BTC would reach $10,000 within three years of that auction. He also said BTC’s value would reach $250k by 2020. Given his track record, I would I take Draper’s words seriously.
In true opposition to the above-mentioned analysts, Joseph Stiglitz is negative about BTC’s future. A renowned economist and Nobel Prize winner for Economic Sciences (2001), Stiglitz has made it clear that he does not believe in crypto. As such, he thinks BTC will plummet to $100 in value after being “regulated into oblivion.”
Alongside Nouriel Roubini, he is one of bitcoin’s biggest critics. Indeed, Stiglitz often slams crypto for its lack of adoption in mainstream markets. However, he has never thoroughly explained the reasons for his negativity.
Only time will tell which of these bitcoin price predictions – if any – will hit the mark. Although some of the figures you’ve just read might seem far-fetched, I wouldn’t disregard them too quickly.
Regardless of what BTC does in the future, it’s important to remember that the adoption rate is growing, even amid the bear market. After all, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology provide an abundance of benefits for users. Whether you think BTC will continue to grow, or whether you think it has run its race, we can all agree that the future will be fascinating.